Bye Week: "You're going to see a good football team after the bye week." -Taylor
The Bengals may have had their best week this season and they didn’t even play. When looking at the AFC North and the AFC everything went the Bengals way. All three division rivals either lost or tied, further tightening the division. Potential wild card teams in the Chargers and Raiders lost as well, further helping the Bengals chances of making it to the playoffs. After 10 weeks: where do the Bengals stand and what is their season outlook? In this week's recap we are going to look at the past and look at the future to see what the Bengals have ahead of them.
When looking at the first half of the season there were some good, while other not so good things that happened. The Bengals at the halfway mark sit at 5-4 and 2-1 in the division. While there were some dominant wins like the Ravens and Lions. There were also some duds like the Jets and Browns. So who are the Bengals and where do they land in the NFL landscape? The Bengals are currently 9th in scoring offense and 12th in scoring defense. Which is perfect in the scope of a playoff team. Outside of the box score the offense is starting to find its groove and become more efficient which should help the offense finish closer to the top 5 in the NFL. The Joe Burrow led offense has yet to have a complete game fully come together and in order to be competitive for the plays - this needs to happen. On the defensive side of the ball things have been a little feast or famine. The defense either plays like an All Pro group or looks like the 2020 Bengals. The stat that keeps jumping up is the tackle rate for this group. In victories the group has a missed tackle rate under 12%. In losses that number is 20%+. The main problem has been tackling ball carriers in the middle of the field. This group has prided themselves on accountability, hopefully their stars can be held accountable first and then the rest of the group can follow. Overall this team is in the middle of the pack and their record shows it. The Bengals are currently 9th in the AFC, and 3rd in their division. They are ½ a game out of a wild card spot, and 1 game out of the division lead. The fate of the Bengals season is completely in their control. I believe these next 8 games will end up defining Zac Taylors coaching career in Cincinnati. Was the first half of the season a facade or are the Bengals legit?
The Bengals have 8 games remaining to prove they are the team they came into the season wanting to be. Their opponents have a combined record of 41-33-1 which leads to an average of 5-4. The exact same record as the Bengals. 3 of 8 games are still against the division and 7 of 8 is in the AFC. The Bengals fate is solely in their own hands, I believe the Bengals have to go 5-3 the rest of the way to make it to the playoffs, while also winning 2 of 3 divisional games. If that happens the Bengals will finish the season 10-7. Now who are the opponents, the Bengals still have to play their three division rivals (Ravens, Steelers, Browns). They also have the entire AFC West (Chiefs, Chargers, Raiders, Broncos). With the last game being against the 49ers. The three easiest games they should have are against the Raiders, 49ers, and Broncos. The Bengals need to come out 2-1 from these three games but have the chance to make it out 3-0. The next group is the division games. Ideally the Bengals win 2 of 3 and will probably lose the Ravens. That leaves the Chargers and the Chiefs, which will have the most media narrative behind. These are the most important games for the Bengals in my mind and are both at home. The Bengals will have to win at least one of them. With this scenario the Bengals would finish the season at 10-7. Now I do believe this is the stretch goal, not my projection. What will probably happen is the Bengals will split the remaining games and finish the season 9-8, which is still great. But I believe ultimately the Bengals will have their playoff fate rest in the hands of other teams.
